Part One: One topic about the restaurant operations you 're interested
A separate but related projection is the market forecast, which is an attempt to gauge the size of the entire market for a certain class of goods or services from all companies serving that market.
Assessing market potential involves observing and quantifying relationships among different social and economic factors that affect purchasing behaviors. Analysts at the industry level look for causal factors that, when linked together, explain changes (upward or downward) in demand for a given set of products or services. This may be done on the local level, the national level, or even the international level. The economic and social variables that are deemed most important—those that historically have shown the most influence on demand—are then incorporated into some type of formula or mathematical model that attempts to predict future purchasing activity based on expected changes in the causal factors.
The simplest example would be to consider the influence of widely observed macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment rates. A simplistic model of market growth might indicate that based on time-series data from the past decade the restaurant market tends to grow at one and one-tenth times the rate of GDP when the national unemployment rate is less than 7 percent, and at four-fifths of the GDP growth rate when unemployment is greater than 7 percent.
Suppose an analyst wishes to create a two-year forecast for the national restaurant business. Using published estimates from government or private sector economists, the analyst might learn that next year's GDP is expected to grow at 2.9 percent and unemployment is expected to register at 6.7 percent. The following year, however, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent and unemployment is expected to rise to 7.6 percent. Using the simple model outlined, the forecast for next year's restaurant sales growth would be based on the first condition observed, namely that market growth is somewhat (10 percent) higher than GDP growth when unemployment is relatively low. In other words, the first year's forecast would be 1.1 × 2.9, or 3.19 percent restaurant market growth. In the second year, the second condition would come into play—market growth is slower than GDP growth—since unemployment is expected to surpass 7 percent. Thus the forecast would be 0.8 X 1.9 percent, or 1.52 percent growth in demand for restaurant services.
While this example illustrates the basic process of forecasting, serious market forecasts would of course consider many more factors than GDP and unemployment. For instance, more sophisticated models might look at the changing demographics of the customer base (size, average income, and other attributes), the rate of inflation, changes in interest rates, and changes in related markets that could affect the market under consideration. Consequently, the formulas for obtaining market forecasts are considerably more complex. But, as in this example, many market forecasts do rely on economic or demographic data from government or other sources; the forecaster often doesn't need to come up with from scratch his or her own projections for, say, GDP and population growth. Many market forecasts also rely on published indexes, ratios, and averages for various economic and social factors that have been compiled in databases or in reference books.
Part Two: Research on how restaurants do their forecasting and food cost control process
Food cost control is important for restaurants, since food and beverage cost contributes a large proportion of the total cost. It can be done by the following steps:
Moreover, a way to ensure that the strategies mentioned above can be work out is to provide proper training to the staff. Through different types of training, staff can gain the ability, knowledge and also confidence to do their jobs properly. Also, training can reduce the chance of mistakes may happened, in the sense that, it costs a lot for a company to correct mistakes or errors.
With this kind of complete cost tracking, restaurant can have a tight control on the food cost.
Restaurant Forecasting
Sales forecasts are common and essential tools used for business planning, marketing, and general management decision making. A sales forecast is a projection of the expected customer demand for products or services at a specific company, for a specific time horizon, and with certain underlying assumptions.A separate but related projection is the market forecast, which is an attempt to gauge the size of the entire market for a certain class of goods or services from all companies serving that market.
MARKET FORECASTING
Assessing market potential involves observing and quantifying relationships among different social and economic factors that affect purchasing behaviors. Analysts at the industry level look for causal factors that, when linked together, explain changes (upward or downward) in demand for a given set of products or services. This may be done on the local level, the national level, or even the international level. The economic and social variables that are deemed most important—those that historically have shown the most influence on demand—are then incorporated into some type of formula or mathematical model that attempts to predict future purchasing activity based on expected changes in the causal factors.
The simplest example would be to consider the influence of widely observed macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment rates. A simplistic model of market growth might indicate that based on time-series data from the past decade the restaurant market tends to grow at one and one-tenth times the rate of GDP when the national unemployment rate is less than 7 percent, and at four-fifths of the GDP growth rate when unemployment is greater than 7 percent.
Suppose an analyst wishes to create a two-year forecast for the national restaurant business. Using published estimates from government or private sector economists, the analyst might learn that next year's GDP is expected to grow at 2.9 percent and unemployment is expected to register at 6.7 percent. The following year, however, GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent and unemployment is expected to rise to 7.6 percent. Using the simple model outlined, the forecast for next year's restaurant sales growth would be based on the first condition observed, namely that market growth is somewhat (10 percent) higher than GDP growth when unemployment is relatively low. In other words, the first year's forecast would be 1.1 × 2.9, or 3.19 percent restaurant market growth. In the second year, the second condition would come into play—market growth is slower than GDP growth—since unemployment is expected to surpass 7 percent. Thus the forecast would be 0.8 X 1.9 percent, or 1.52 percent growth in demand for restaurant services.
While this example illustrates the basic process of forecasting, serious market forecasts would of course consider many more factors than GDP and unemployment. For instance, more sophisticated models might look at the changing demographics of the customer base (size, average income, and other attributes), the rate of inflation, changes in interest rates, and changes in related markets that could affect the market under consideration. Consequently, the formulas for obtaining market forecasts are considerably more complex. But, as in this example, many market forecasts do rely on economic or demographic data from government or other sources; the forecaster often doesn't need to come up with from scratch his or her own projections for, say, GDP and population growth. Many market forecasts also rely on published indexes, ratios, and averages for various economic and social factors that have been compiled in databases or in reference books.
Part Two: Research on how restaurants do their forecasting and food cost control process
Food cost control is important for restaurants, since food and beverage cost contributes a large proportion of the total cost. It can be done by the following steps:
1. Ordering
Start from choosing vendor, restaurant have to choose a reliable vendor to deliver orders. The key step is to "order right", order the right quantity with right condition (based on the designed purchasing specifications) from the right vendor. We always want to make delivery just-in-time (JIT), avoid ordering too early that will cause spoilage and waste of storage space and money, also prevent ordering too late that will incur extra cost on delivery.
2. Receiving
In this step, it should be make sure that orders are in right quantity which comply with the order placed, and with right weight and quality. Everything should be correct and same as the purchase order.
3. Storing
It should be ensured that the method and place of storage is appropriate for the items, and it should be secure enough to prevent from any pilferage.
4. Issuing
The steps to issue items should be clear, for example, any documents signed. It helps to make the stock taking efficiently, to calculate the par stock, then to decide when to make a new order. It is important because it is the major reference point in the ordering decision making process.
5. Cooking
Use the proper utilities, cooking time, materials etc. during cooking process to make the dishes are in the right portion and serving size, according to the costing and pricing of menus. It is also a key factor since it can reduce wastage, and to control cost.
Restaurant can save some costs in the above steps, it seems to be easy and simple, but it will make a great difference if everything are under control, and the restaurant can save a lot.
Moreover, a way to ensure that the strategies mentioned above can be work out is to provide proper training to the staff. Through different types of training, staff can gain the ability, knowledge and also confidence to do their jobs properly. Also, training can reduce the chance of mistakes may happened, in the sense that, it costs a lot for a company to correct mistakes or errors.
Last but not least, technology can come into account on food cost control. There is a software called Recipe Manager, which helps to calculate directly and accurately from the inventories (raw materials) purchased until the cost on end products.
With this kind of complete cost tracking, restaurant can have a tight control on the food cost.
Part Three: More local trends about restaurant operations
- resaurants should provide internet access now, since people are more demand for this service
- more promotion through internet is needed, for example, uBuyiBuy. New customers are attracted to visit new restaurant by the special low price, and it is easier for restaurant to do their promotion through internet, since it can widely spread
- customers become more demanding, they want to have a variety of food choices, and also a higher service level
- different types of cusine should be provided, for example, Korean food, Thai food, Western food etc.
- restaurant environment are more important now, since people are chasing for higher living standard, they enjoy having meals in a decent environment
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